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lecture15

# The confusion of the inverse the most important topic

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Unformatted text preview: person sitting next to you?” The answer is: almost certain. It is important to distinguish the two possible questions you might ask: 1. What is the probability that the next time you book a flight you will end up sitting next to someone who went to the same grade school as you? This probability is very close to 0. 2. What is the probability that the next time you book a flight you will end up sitting next to someone who has something in common with you. This probability is close to 1. The difference between the two situations is that situation 1 specifies just one outcome: same grade school. For situation 2, any connection will do, so the event space is much, much larger than in situation 1. In other words, coincidences are to be expected. The Confusion of the Inverse The most important...
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