Unformatted text preview: e beneficial interests or common
ideology with the insurgency. Ethnic enclaves or diasporas in third-party countries can provide significant
support in terms of political voice, money, personnel, and sanctuary.
2-18. With external support comes a degree of dependency on the foreign power. Insurgencies can view
this as a disadvantage because the foreign power can then attempt to control or manipulate the insurgency
to better serve its goals. To counterbalance the loss of the support from sympathetic foreign governments
since the end of the Cold War, many groups have resorted to alliances with organized crime groups,
narcotics trafficking, and kidnapping to raise funds. This tactic has proven extremely effective for
generating revenue, but counterproductive to the original goals of the movements. PHASING AND TIMING
2-19. Successful insurgencies pass through common phases of development. Not all insurgencies
experience every phase, and progression through all phases is not a requirement for success. The same
insurgent movement may be in different phases in separate regions of a country. Successful insurgencies
can also revert to an earlier phase when under pressure, resuming development when favorable conditions
return. A common failure of insurgencies and counterinsurgencies is the inability to adapt tactics when
transitioning from one phase of a strategy to another.
2-20. The three-phase construct presented below is a historical representation of how insurgencies mature.
An extremely useful template allows planners to communicate precisely an insurgency’s stage of
development. Phase I—Latent or Incipient Phase
2-21. During this phase, the leadership of the resistance develops the clandestine supporting infrastructure
upon which all future effort will rely. The resistance organization uses a variety of subversive techniques to
prepare the population psychologically to resist. Some techniques include propaganda, demonstrations,
boycotts, and sabotage. Subversive activities frequently occur in an organized pattern...
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This document was uploaded on 01/15/2014.
- Winter '14