38 no 8 april 19 1965 electronics the complexity for

Unformatted text preview: 1965. Electronics The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year (see graph on next page). Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer. Spring 2014, Jan 15 Spring ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal) 11 Moore’s 1965 Graph Lower yield of larger chips Increases cost Higher integration reduces cost 1975 Spring 2014, Jan 15 Spring ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal) 12 1975 “Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics,” Progress IEDM Tech. Digest, 1975, pp. 11-13. IEDM . . . the rate of increase of complexity can be expected to change slope in the next few years as shown in Figure 5. The new slope might approximate a doubling every two years, rather than every year, by the end of the decade. Spring 2014, Jan 15 Spri...
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