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Unformatted text preview: 1965.
The complexity for minimum component costs has
increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year
(see graph on next page). Certainly over the short
term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to
increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase
is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason
to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at
least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of
components per integrated circuit for minimum cost
will be 65,000.
I believe that such a large circuit can be built on
a single wafer. Spring 2014, Jan 15
Spring ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal) 11 Moore’s 1965 Graph
Lower yield of
Increases cost Higher integration
1975 Spring 2014, Jan 15
Spring ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal) 12 1975 “Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics,”
Progress IEDM Tech. Digest, 1975, pp. 11-13.
. . . the rate of increase of complexity can be
expected to change slope in the next few years
as shown in Figure 5. The new slope might
approximate a doubling every two years, rather
than every year, by the end of the decade. Spring 2014, Jan 15
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This document was uploaded on 01/17/2014.
- Spring '14