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probability of a woman not being pregnant when the test results indicate pregnancy. It is
estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of the kit is 10%. According
to the company laboratory test results, 1 out of 100 nonpregnant women tested pregnant
(false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200 pregnant women tested nonpregnant (false
negative). A woman has just used the pregnancy test kit manufactured by the company and
the results showed pregnancy. What is the probability that she is not pregnant? 79. A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine the
probability of a woman actually being pregnant when the test results indicate that she is not
pregnant. It is estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of the kit is
10%. According to the company laboratory test results, 1 out of 100 nonpregnant women
tested pregnant (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200 pregnant women tested nonpregnant (false negative). A woman has just used the pregnancy test kit manufactured by the
company and the results showed that she is not pregnant. What is the probability that she is
pregnant? 11898 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 80. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair quality (S2), and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (S3).
Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in
thousands of dollars. What alternative action should be selected according to maximax criterion? 81. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair quality (S2), and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (S3).
Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in
thousands of dollars. What alternative action should be selected according to maximin criterion? 11899 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 82. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair quality (S2), and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (S3).
Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in
thousands of dollars. What alternative action should be selected according to expected monetary value criterion? 83. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair quality (S2), and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (S3).
Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in
thousands of dollars. What is the maximum amount that the quality control manager would be willing to pay for
perfect information? 11900 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 84. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair quality (S2), and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (S3).
Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in
thousands of dollars. Based on historical data, if the lot is poor quality, 40% of the items are defective. If the lot is
fair quality 22% of the items are defective. If the lot is good quality, 10% of the items are
defective. The quality control manager inspects one unit from a recent shipment.
After inspecting it he determines that the unit is not defective. Based on this additional
information, determine the revised (posterior) probabilities for each of the three states of
nature. 11901 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 85. The quality control manager for the NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative
1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) the shipment (lot) of incoming
material. The historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (S 1),
50% chance that the lot is fair...
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This document was uploaded on 01/20/2014.
 Winter '14

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