Unformatted text preview: conclude that in general the
forecasting method is:
A. Underestimating demand
B. Overestimating demand
C. We cannot determine whether the predictions based on this method's results in
underestimation or overestimation of demand. 11531 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 52.
Based on the information given in the table above, what is the MAD?
A. 1.3333
B. 1.6667
C. 2.5
D. 3.3333
E. 4.5 53.
Based on the information given in the table above, what is the average forecast error?
A. 1.3333
B. 1.6667
C. 2.5
D. 3.3333
E. 4.5 11532 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 54.
Based on the information given in the table above, what is the MSD?
A. 1.3333
B. 1.6667
C. 2.5
D. 3.3333
E. 4.5 55. When using simple exponential smoothing, the value of the smoothing constant α cannot
be:
A. Negative
B. Greater than zero
C. Greater than 1
D. .99
E. Both A and C 56. The demand for a product for the last six years has been 15, 15, 17, 18, 20, and 19. The
manager wants to predict the demand for this time series using the following simple linear
trend equation: trt = 12 + 2t. What are the forecast errors for the 5th and 6th years?
A. 0, 3
B. 0, + 3
C. + 2, + 5
D. 2, 5
E. 1, 4 11533 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 57.
Use this equation to forecast the demand for this product and calculate the MSD.
A. MSD = 6
B. MSD = 3.3333
C. MSD = 7.0
D. MSD = 2
E. MSD = 2.4 58.
Use this equation to forecast the demand for this product and calculate the MAD.
A. MAD = 1.333
B. MAD = 1.6
C. MAD = 2.0
D. MAD = 2.333
E. MAD = 2.5 59. When there is _______________ seasonal variation, the magnitude of the seasonal swing
does not depend on the level of the time series.
A. cyclical
B. constant
C. irregular
D. increasing 11534 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 60. When there is firstorder autocorrelation, the error term in period t is related to the error
term in period _____.
A. t
B. t + 1
C. t  1
D. t  2 61. The _____ test is a test for firstorder positive autocorrelation.
A. DurbinWatson
B. MSD
C. MAD
D. Multiplicative Winters 62. Holt  Winters double exponential smoothing method is used to forecast time series data
with ________.
A. autocorrelation
B. linear trend
C. cyclical patterns
D. moving averages 63. The recurring upanddown movement of a time series around trend levels that last more
than one calendar year is called ____.
A. constant variation
B. cyclical variation
C. seasonal variation
D. irregular variation 64. A forecasting method that weights recent observations more heavily is called ____.
A. time series analysis
B. firstorder autocorrelation
C. multiplicative decomposition
D. exponential smoothing 11535 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 65. The upward or downward movement that characterizes a time series over a period of time
is referred to as ____.
A. seasonal
B. cyclical
C. trend
D. irregular 66. The purpose behind moving averages and centered moving averages is to eliminate
_________________.
A. constant variation
B. cyclical variation
C. seasonal variation
D. regular variation 67. Weighting in exponential smoothing is accomplished by the use of ____.
A. firstorder autocorrelation
B. smoothing constants
C. DurbinWatson
D. multiplicative decomposing 68. The DurbinWatson statistic is used to detect ____.
A. firstorder autocorrelation
B. exponential smoothing
C. multiplicative decomposing
D. irregular variation 69. Periodic patterns in time series that repeat themselves within a calendar year or less are
referred to as ____.
A. constant variations
B. cyclical variations
C. seasonal variations
D. regular variations 11536 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 70. The basic difference between MAD and MSE is that MSE, unlike MAD, penalizes a
forecasting technique much more for _____ errors than for _____ errors.
A. large, small
B. small, large
C. small, zero
D. zero, large 71. When using simple exponential smoothing, the more recent the time series observation,
the _________ its corresponding weight.
A. larger
B. smaller
C. irregular
D. cyclical 72. When deseasonalizing time series observation, we divide the actual time series
observation by its __________.
A. irregular factor
B. cyclical factor
C. seasonal factor
D. weighted aggregate factor 73. If a time series exhibits increasing seasonal variation, one approach is to first use a
______________ transformation that produces a transformed time series that exhibits
constant seasonal variation. Then, _________ variables can be used to model the time series
with constant seasonal variation.
A. autocorrelation, dummy
B. fractional power, dummy
C. fractional power, constant
D. autocorrelation, constant 11537 Chapter 01  An Introduction to Business Statistics 74. A simple index is obtained by dividing the current value of a time series by the value of a
time series in the _____ time period and by multiplying this ratio by 100.
A. base
B. final
C. current
D. shortest 75. When preparing a price index based on multiple produ...
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