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STR N421 - Lecture 3 - 2011

# Impact is high probability low high high impact low

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Unformatted text preview: act Matrix A “matrix form” is then used to classify all risks identified in the previous stage. Probability Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Low High Impact Low High ProbabilityProbability-Impact Matrix Probability is low. Impact is high. Probability Low High High Impact Low Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy ProbabilityProbability-Impact Matrix Probability is high. Impact is low. Probability Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Low High Impact Low High Very High High Moderate Low Very Low M A T R I X Impact Very High High Moderate Impact Low Very Low M A T R I X Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Very Low Low Moderate Very High High Impact M A T R I X Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Scoring and Indexing Numerical values can also be used to represent the rating rating scale. For instance: ◦ Five-point scale (1 5) ◦ Ten-point scale (1 10) The The scales are used to assess probability and impact. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Scoring Scoring and Indexing The values for probability and impact are combined together to depict the magnitude / severity of the risk. For For instance, multiply the two numbers. multiply Probability Impact Magnitude/Severity 1 4 4 3 3 9 5 5 25 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Rating Scales… Again Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Rating Rating Scales… Again Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Exercise on Risk Analysis The Matrix Method Schools Schools & Industrial Plants A list of identified risks: ◦ Design changes. ◦ Fluctuation of exchange rate. ◦ Client cash flow problems. ◦ Shortage of skilled subcontractors. ◦ Government bureaucracy (e.g., permits). ◦ Insufficiency of relevant contract terms. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Schools & Industrial Plants A list of identified risks (continued): ◦ Material shortages. ◦ Accidents on site. ◦ Technical complexities in execution. ◦ Drop of labor productivity due to weather. ◦ Changes in environmental laws and regulations. ◦ Proficiency of management team. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Required Required !!! Use the matrix method to assess the listed risks for both both sectors. Use a separate matrix for each sector. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy End of Week 3...
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