Unformatted text preview: os of risk
events in the project under consideration. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Benefits
In addition to those of the sensitivity analysis:
More realistic as entire scenarios are created.
Provides a better and more comprehensive idea
about the chance of success of the project. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Shortcomings
No evidence of a particular scenario to happen.
Scenarios are sometimes unrealistic. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability
Both sensitivity and scenario methods ignore the
probability distributions associated with risk events.
To overcome this limitation, probability analysis is
carried out to identify these probability distributions.
However, this task is by no means easy.
It depends on the existence of satisfactory pool of
data. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability Analysis
◦ Statistical analysis is performed on data from past
comparable projects and current conditions.
◦ A risk range is identified.
◦ A histogram is developed to represent...
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- Winter '14
- Ezzat Georgy, Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy