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Drmagedezzatgeorgy benefits benefits of scenario

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Unformatted text preview: os of risk events in the project under consideration. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Benefits Benefits of Scenario Scenario Analysis In addition to those of the sensitivity analysis: More realistic as entire scenarios are created. Provides a better and more comprehensive idea about the chance of success of the project. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Shortcomings Shortcomings of Scenario Scenario Analysis No evidence of a particular scenario to happen. Scenarios are sometimes unrealistic. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability Probability Analysis Both sensitivity and scenario methods ignore the probability probability distributions associated with risk events. To overcome this limitation, probability analysis is carried out to identify these probability distributions. id di However, this task is by no means easy. It depends on the existence of satisfactory pool of data data. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability Analysis Typically: ◦ Statistical analysis is performed on data from past comparable projects and current conditions. ◦ A risk range is identified. ◦ A histogram is developed to represent...
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