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Unformatted text preview: ivity analysis.
◦ Scenario analysis.
◦ Probability analysis.
◦ Expected value.
◦ Decision trees.
◦ Fault trees. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy How
How to Quantitatively
Assess Project Risks
Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks (continued):
◦ Program evaluation and review technique (PERT).
◦ Monte Carlo simulation.
◦ Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models,
◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity Analysis
The simplest form for quantitative risk assessment.
It is based on changing the possible values of a risk
event in its natural range and observing the resulting
ff Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity
Take for example the case of labor productivity for
Assume the typical productivity for a crew is 40
However, weather/temperature may cause the
productivity to vary between 30 & 45 m3/day. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity Analysis
Only applied for high impact risk events.
Due to the efforts put, only few risk events can be
evaluated and usually comparisons are made to
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- Winter '14