Scenario analysis probability analysis expected value

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Unformatted text preview: ivity analysis. ◦ Scenario analysis. ◦ Probability analysis. ◦ Expected value. ◦ Decision trees. ◦ Fault trees. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy How How to Quantitatively Assess Project Risks Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks (continued): ◦ Program evaluation and review technique (PERT). ◦ Monte Carlo simulation. ◦ Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models, belief networks. ◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity Analysis The simplest form for quantitative risk assessment. It It is based on changing the possible values of a risk th event in its natural range and observing the resulting effect. ff Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity Sensitivity Analysis Take for example the case of labor productivity for concreting concreting activities. Assume the typical productivity for a crew is 40 m3/day. However, weather/temperature may cause the productivity to vary between 30 & 45 m3/day. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Sensitivity Analysis Only applied for high impact risk events. Due to the efforts put, only few risk events can be th evaluated and usually comparisons are made to id i...
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