STR N421 Lecture 5 2011

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Unformatted text preview: ysis. ◦ Scenario analysis. ◦ Probability analysis. ◦ Expected value. ◦ Decision trees. ◦ Fault trees. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy How to Quantitatively Assess Project Risks Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks (continued): ◦ Program evaluation and review technique (PERT). ◦ Monte Carlo simulation. ◦ Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models, belief networks. ◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Expected Value (EV) Reminder … A risk is measured via its “magnitude”. A magnitude combines both probability and impact. We have seen how to do this in case of qualitative analysis: ◦ Probability-impact matrix. ◦ Rating scales (using ordinal numbers). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Expected Expected Value Expected value (EV) analysis is a direct way of determining the magnitude/severity of risks. First, the probability of occurrence and impact are depicted through “actual values”. Then, the two values are...
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This document was uploaded on 01/22/2014.

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