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◦ Scenario analysis.
◦ Probability analysis.
◦ Expected value.
◦ Decision trees.
◦ Fault trees. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy How to Quantitatively
Assess Project Risks
Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks
◦ Program evaluation and review technique (PERT).
◦ Monte Carlo simulation.
◦ Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models,
◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Expected Value (EV) Reminder …
A risk is measured via its “magnitude”.
A magnitude combines both probability and impact.
We have seen how to do this in case of qualitative
◦ Probability-impact matrix.
◦ Rating scales (using ordinal numbers). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Expected
Expected value (EV) analysis is a direct way of
determining the magnitude/severity of risks.
First, the probability of occurrence and impact are
depicted through “actual values”.
Then, the two values are...
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This document was uploaded on 01/22/2014.
- Winter '14