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The most likely values dont necessarily represent

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Unformatted text preview: ts of the project elements). The most likely values don’t necessarily represent what might happens in reality. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy ERA Method in Hong Kong Practices Contingencies are added to account for the uncertainty uncertainty in estimating project cost elements. A percentage, frequently an arbitrary number, is used to calculate the contingency. Hong Kong government improved their practice by applying Estimating using Risk Analysis (ERA). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy ERA ERA Method in Hong Kong Practices First, a base estimate is made (risk-free). Risks are identified, then classified into: ◦ Fixed, and ◦ Variable. For each risk, an average and maximum risk allowance (contingency) is calculated. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy ERA Method in Hong Kong Practices Maximum Contingency Average Contingency Risk-free Estimate Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Fixed Fixed Risks These are risk events that will e...
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