Unformatted text preview: σsum get probability Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability of Completion
For instance, if we want to calculate the probability of
completing the previous project within 32 weeks,
◦ Z = (32 – 30) / √ 13 = 0.55
◦ From tables, probability = 71% Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range
This term is used to imply cost estimating while
accounting for variability in the cost of project tasks.
The same concept of cost representation via three
values (a, m, b) is used.
Total costs are calculated considering the cost of
items included (certain work package, subproject, or
the project as a whole). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range Estimating Example
Let us assume the following case:
SD A 10,000 12,000 15,000 12,167 833 B 25,000 30,000 50,000 32,500 4,167 C 15,000 20,000 30,000 20,833 2,500 D 5,000 7,000 10,000 7,167 833 72,667 5000 Entire
Package Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy 69,000 Range
Range Estimating Example
A budget of $75,000 was assigned to that package.
What is the chance it might not be sufficient and
extra funding is needed??? Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range Estimating Example
Let start by calculating the chance this budget will be
◦ Z = (75,000 – 72,667) / 5000 = 0.467
◦ From tables, probability = 68% Based on this, the chance this budget will not be
sufficient will be 32% Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy End of Week 7...
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- Winter '14
- Project Management, Probability theory