STR N421 - Lecture 7 - 2011

# 55 from tables probability 71 drmagedezzatgeorgy

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Unformatted text preview: σsum get probability Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Probability of Completion For instance, if we want to calculate the probability of completing the previous project within 32 weeks, then: ◦ Z = (32 – 30) / √ 13 = 0.55 ◦ From tables, probability = 71% Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range Range Estimating This term is used to imply cost estimating while accounting for variability in the cost of project tasks. The same concept of cost representation via three values (a, m, b) is used. Total costs are calculated considering the cost of items included (certain work package, subproject, or subproject or the project as a whole). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range Estimating Example Let us assume the following case: Work item Opt. cost Most Most likely cost Pes. cost Exp. cost SD SD A 10,000 12,000 15,000 12,167 833 B 25,000 30,000 50,000 32,500 4,167 C 15,000 20,000 30,000 20,833 2,500 D 5,000 7,000 10,000 7,167 833 72,667 5000 Entire Package Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy 69,000 Range Range Estimating Example A budget of \$75,000 was assigned to that package. What is the chance it might not be sufficient and extra funding is needed??? Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Range Estimating Example Let start by calculating the chance this budget will be sufficient: ◦ Z = (75,000 – 72,667) / 5000 = 0.467 ◦ From tables, probability = 68% Based on this, the chance this budget will not be sufficient will be 32% Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy End of Week 7...
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