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STR N421 - Lecture 7 - 2011

# Accordingly point estimates for project duration and

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Unformatted text preview: ed on single time/cost values for each task. Accordingly, point estimates for project duration and total cost are calculated. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Uncertainties Uncertainties in Estimating Sometimes, we encounter construction projects that have a great deal of uncertainty. Think of tunnels, underground networks, harbors, breakwaters etc breakwaters, etc. These uncertainties are due to the many risks surrounding the execution of project tasks. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Uncertainties in Estimating The same situation is also encountered when a new gy/ construction technology/method is adopted for the first time. Apparently no Apparently, no historical records would exist to help make accurate point estimates for activity duration/cost. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Uncertainties Uncertainties in Estimating Due to the inherent risks: ◦ It is simply difficult to make accurate single-point estimates of the durations/costs of project tasks. ◦ And thus, it is also difficult (and less accurate) to make single-point estimates of the durations/costs of the project as a whole. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Example Example for Uncertainties Uncertainties in Estimating Take for example the following case: ◦ Duration for excavating a certain segment of a main sewage network is depicted through a range of values (for (for example, 20 – 30 days). 20 30 ◦ This is more comprehensive than a single point estimate (f (for example, 23 days). 23 ◦ Expect the project duration to vary within a range as well (for example, 90 – 130 days). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Uncertainties Uncertainties & PERT PERT was one of the early efforts to quant...
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