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STR N421 - Lecture 7 - 2011

# Applying pert helps deliver more realistic estimates

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Unformatted text preview: itatively, and also comprehensively, incorporate risks into project plans. Applying PERT helps deliver more realistic estimates of project duration and cost. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Uncertainties & PERT In literature and practice, PERT is commonly associated with project scheduling. However, the same concepts can be successfully applied applied for cost estimating as well. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Basics Basics of PERT PERT calls for three estimates to be provided for each task/activity/job. These three estimates are: ◦ Optimistic value (a) ◦ Most likely value (m) ◦ Pessimistic value (b) Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Most Likely Value (m) The most likely value (m) assumes normal circumstances to take place while executing the task. Therefore, this value represents our “best guess” for the the task duration / cost. It is equivalent to the single-point estimate you make in case of regular planning (i.e., no risks considered). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Optimistic Optimistic Value (a) The optimistic value assumes the best possible circumstances and conditions to exist while executing the task. In In other words, we assume matters to go very we smoothly (an ideal case). Thus, this value represents the shortest possible duration or least possible cost for the task. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Pessimistic Value (b) The pessimistic value assumes the worst possible circumstances and conditions to exist while executing the task. In In other words, we assume everything that can go we wrong will actually go wrong...
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