Unformatted text preview: s or less…
There is low chance of completing it within the 12
day period. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy What it Does…
◦ Monte Carlo simulation creates an imaginary
scenario of the project.
◦ Project scheduling and/or costing is performed.
◦ Results of the scenario are recorded.
◦ The process is repeated many times.
◦ A probability distribution of the result is obtained.
Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Steps of
Monte Carlo Simulation Five
Five Steps for Monte Carlo
Step 1: Estimate minimum, maximum, and most
likely values (applies to both time and cost)
Step 2: Select the appropriate profile
Step 3: Incorporate the known dependencies
Step 4: Run the simulation
Step 5: Evaluate and interpret the results Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
1 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
2 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
P For scheduling process, incorporate
dependencies 3 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
P For costing process, it is a simple addition.
Unless various alternatives are evaluated
(alternative mechanical components, for
instance) 3 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
P Run the simulation 4 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
P Develop a histogram for the result. 5 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
P Develop the cumulative curve for the result. 5 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Computer
Computer Demo of
Monte Carlo Simulation Demo…
A sample Monte Carlo simulation software.
◦ Scheduling of a small house (an update).
◦ Costing of an industrial plant. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy End of Week 8...
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- Winter '14
- Ezzat Georgy