STR N421 - Lecture 8 - 2011

# Drmagedezzatgeorgy what it does to summarize monte

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Unformatted text preview: s or less… There There is low chance of completing it within the 12 day period. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy What it Does… To summarize: ◦ Monte Carlo simulation creates an imaginary scenario of the project. ◦ Project scheduling and/or costing is performed. ◦ Results of the scenario are recorded. ◦ The process is repeated many times. ◦ A probability distribution of the result is obtained. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Steps of Monte Carlo Simulation Five Five Steps for Monte Carlo Simulation Simulation Step 1: Estimate minimum, maximum, and most likely likely values (applies to both time and cost) Step 2: Select the appropriate profile Step 3: Incorporate the known dependencies Step 4: Run the simulation th Step 5: Evaluate and interpret the results Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P 1 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P 2 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P For scheduling process, incorporate dependencies 3 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P For costing process, it is a simple addition. Unless various alternatives are evaluated (alternative mechanical components, for instance) 3 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P Run the simulation 4 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P Develop a histogram for the result. 5 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S T E P Develop the cumulative curve for the result. 5 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Computer Computer Demo of Monte Carlo Simulation Demo… Demo… A sample Monte Carlo simulation software. Two samples: ◦ Scheduling of a small house (an update). ◦ Costing of an industrial plant. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy End of Week 8...
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