Monte carlo simulation artificial intelligence

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Unformatted text preview: eview technique (PERT). ◦ Monte Carlo simulation. ◦ Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models, belief networks. ◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Monte Carlo Simulation Simulation… Simulation… The word “simulation” implies an imitation of reality. Simulation techniques can be used to imitate a project behavior based on given circumstances. In terms of project risks, a simulation is employed to better understand the project performance under the risks it might encounter. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Simulation… It creates imaginary scenarios of the project with different combinations of activity durations and costs (to reflect different levels of risk impact). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy What What it Does… Let us simplify the network and consider a project of only 3 consecutive activities (A, B and C). We can create a possible scenario via selecting possible durations from the given ranges (taking into ibl th (t consideration the chances/probabilities). Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy What it Does… If the selected durations for activities (A, B and C) for our first scenario were 2, 7 and 3 days respective...
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