STR N421 - Lecture 6 - 2011

# Drmagedezzatgeorgy basic probability concepts a and b

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Unformatted text preview: ility calculations calculations using AND & OR operators. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Basic Probability Concepts A and B are fully independent. P(A n B) = P(A)*P(B) P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A)*P(B) Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Basic Basic Probability Concepts P(A n B n C) = P(A)*P(B)*P(C) P(A u B u C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A)*P(B) - P(A)*P(C) - P(B)*P(C) + P(A)*P(B)*P(C) Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Back to Example … Assume the following: ◦ P (force majeure) = 10% ◦ P (unskilled labor) = 15% ◦ P (bad weather) = 5% 5% ◦ P (low coordination) = 12% ◦ P (difficult fix) = 50% ◦ P (v. high rental) = 30% ◦ P (unavailable spares) = 60% Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy E X A M P L E Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Calculations P (productivity drop) = 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.12 – 0.15*0.05 – 0.15*0.12 – 0.05*0.12 + 0.15*0.05*0.12 P (productivity drop) = = 0.2894 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Calculations Calculations P (equipment problem) = 0.5*0.3*0.6 P (equipment problem) = 0.09 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Calculations P (project delay)...
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## This document was uploaded on 01/22/2014.

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