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STR N421 - Lecture 6 - 2011 - STR STR N421 Risk Risk...

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STR N421 Risk Management in Construction Industry Lecture 6 Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Topics Covered in Week 5 y Tools for quantitative risk analysis ( continued ). y Expected value Expected value. y Risk ranking. y Practical application in contingency estimating. D i i t y Decision trees. y Exercises. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy
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Week 6 Topics to Cover in Week 6 y Tools for quantitative risk analysis ( continued ). y Fault trees. y Review of probability concepts. y Fault tree calculations. y Cut sets in fault trees. y Exercises Exercises. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy
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Quantitative Risk Analysis How to Quantitatively Assess Project Risks y Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks: Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis. Scenario analysis. Probability analysis. Expected value. Decision trees. Fault trees. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy
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How to Quantitatively Assess Project Risks y Tools/techniques for quantitatively assessing risks ( continued ) : Program evaluation and review technique (PERT). Monte Carlo simulation. Artificial intelligence techniques, e.g., fuzzy models, belief networks. etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Fault Trees
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Origin … y This method was developed in the 1960’s.
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