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Unformatted text preview: uzzy models,
belief networks.
◦ etc. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Fault Trees Origin
Origin …
This method was developed in the 1960’s.
Originally developed for the field of industrial
engineering. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy F
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Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy What’s
What’s a Fault Tree???
A fault tree is a verticallyoriented tree.
It related a certain failure of a system to its root
causes.
Relationships are presents through a set of Boolean
logic
logic gates. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Benefit of a Fault Tree
A fault tree is used to calculate the probability of
failure
failure of a given system.
In our case the system is:
◦ A project, or
◦ Project element. Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy S
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E Dr. Maged Ezzat Georgy Basic
Basic Concept in Fault Trees
A fault tree aims to calculate the probability of the
top event, e.g., project delay.
project
This is done according to the known probabilities of
the basic events.
Calculating the probability of the top event needs us
to review the basic concepts of probab...
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 Winter '14

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