Lecture3 - Conditional Probability Notes Lecture 3...

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Conditional Probability Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule 3.1 Lecture 3 Conditional Probability Text: A Course in Probability by Weiss 4 . 1 STAT 225 Introduction to Probability Models January 20, 2014 Whitney Huang Purdue University Conditional Probability Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule 3.2 Agenda 1 Conditional Probability 2 General Multiplication Rule Notes Notes
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Conditional Probability Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule 3.3 Motivating Example In a certain population, the probability a person lives to be 80 is 80% while the probability a person lives to be 90 is 68%. Given that a person lives to be 80, what is the probability that she/he will live to be 90? Conditional Probability Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule 3.4 Conditional Probability Let A and B be events. The probability that event A occurs given (knowing) that event B occurs is called a conditional probability . It is denoted as P ( A | B ) . The formula of conditional probability is P ( A | B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) The above formula works so long as P ( B ) > 0. Under the equally likely framework the formula above can be written as P ( A | B ) = #( A B ) #( B ) Notes Notes
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Conditional Probability Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule 3.5 Motivating Example
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