10_Decision_Making

2 estimate whether more of 1 or 2 sixletter words

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Unformatted text preview: negative 2 c 99,000 d   Confusing conditional probabilities:   Important to distinguish between: 1. Probability of A given that B is present 2. Probability of B given that A is present   Formal logic rules are always correct -   but rarely used in actual reasoning   Domain ­specific reasoning mechanisms have evolved to solve problems important for a species   Problem format critically important for the ability to solve it 12   Don’t always ▪  Know ▪  Consider ▪  Have access to   all relevant information   Heuristics (Tversky & Kahnemann, 1974)   Biases Availability Heuristic   base our estimates of likelihood on how easily we can think if examples   Biased Encoding   Some events/instances stick out because we process them differently ▪  More likely cause of death: ▪  Tornadoes vs. Extreme cold ▪  Motor vehicle accidents vs. Stroke ▪  Floods vs. Asthma Availabili...
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This note was uploaded on 01/26/2014 for the course PSYCH 228 taught by Professor Broaders during the Winter '11 term at Northwestern.

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