Unformatted text preview: tested a + c a+b+c+d 10
the probability that a patient has a disease given a
+disease/+test: positive result? a a + b Disease: present absent Test results: +disease/test: positive a negative c c c + d b d Probability of having it: a a + b the probability that a patient has a disease given a
positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive a + b present absent Test results: positive a b negative c d the probability that a patient has a disease given a
positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive ~ 99% a + b present absent Test results: Base rate: positive 98 negative 1 2 a b a + c a+b+c+d = 50% 99 c d 11
the probability that a patient has a disease given a
positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive ~ 99% a + b ~ 0.9% present absent Test results: positive Base rate: 98 a 1000 b a + c a+b+c+d = 50% ~ 0.1%...
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 Winter '11
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 Cognitive Psychology, the00, to00, a00

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