10_Decision_Making

# 9 present absent test results positive base rate 98 a

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Unformatted text preview: tested a + c a+b+c+d 10 -the probability that a patient has a disease given a +disease/+test: positive result? a a + b Disease: present absent Test results: +disease/-test: positive a negative c c c + d b d Probability of having it: a a + b -the probability that a patient has a disease given a positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive a + b present absent Test results: positive a b negative c d -the probability that a patient has a disease given a positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive ~ 99% a + b present absent Test results: Base rate: positive 98 negative 1 2 a b a + c a+b+c+d = 50% 99 c d 11 -the probability that a patient has a disease given a positive result? disease present => 98% test positive Probability of having it: disease absent => 1% test positive a Disease: Test = positive ~ 99% a + b ~ 0.9% present absent Test results: positive Base rate: 98 a 1000 b a + c a+b+c+d = 50% ~ 0.1%...
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