Your guess 1 actual answer 12 number of men who

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Unformatted text preview: of that object   Ignoring base rates   Give personality test to 100 people, 30 engineers, 70 lawyers   Jack is a 45 ­year ­old man. He is married and has 4 children. He is generally conservative, careful, and ambitious. He shows no interest in political and social issues and spends most of his time on his many hobbies, which include home carpentry, sailing, and mathematical puzzles.   From 1 ­100, probability that Jack is an engineer? Which event is most likely? 1. a man is under 55 & has a heart attack 2. a man has heart attack 3. a man smokes & has a heart attack 4. a man is over 55 & has a heart attack   Conjunction Fallacy  ­ See combination of qualities as more likely than the single qualities 14   Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic   Make initial estimate based on knowledge or presented information   Make adjustment to initial anchor to arrive at ...
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