10_Decision_Making

A a b disease present absent test results disease

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Unformatted text preview: ion (hypothesis)   Have to actively seek information to DISCONFIRM   Induction (drawing inferences) is a hallmark of human cognition 9 Task:     diagnose a rare, serious disease treatment is risky   new diagnostic test:   if disease is present => 98% test positive   if disease is absent => 1% test positive   You run the test, and it is positive   How likely is the patient to have the disease?   You cannot tell without knowledge of overall prevalence Test Quality: -likelihood of positive test result person has disease -likelihood of false-positive test result Disease: present a +test/+disease: a a + c absent b Test results: positive +test/-disease: c negative b b + d d Test Quality: -likelihood of positive test result -likelihood of false-positive test result -base rate Disease: present absent Test results: positive negative a c b d Base rate= disease among population...
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