10_Decision_Making

S age at death 39 years length of the nile river 4187

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Unformatted text preview: nal judgment 1.  Number of electoral votes belonging to Ohio in presidential election  ­ less than or more than 6? Your guess ____ 2.  Number of men who have served as pope  ­ less than or more than 100? Your guess___ 3.  Total area of the state of Utah, in square miles  ­ less than or more than 100,000 square miles? Your guess ____ 4.  Distance from Neptune to the sun  ­ less than or more than 5 billion miles? Your guess ____ 1.  Number of electoral votes belonging to Ohio in presidential election  ­ less than or more than 6? Your guess ____ 1.  Actual answer: 12 Number of men who have served as pope  ­ less than or more than 100? Your guess___ 2.  1.  Actual answer: 300 Total area of the state of Utah, in square miles  ­ less than or more than 100,000 square miles? Your guess ____ 3.  1.  Actual answer: 36, 420 Distance from Neptune to the sun  ­ less than or more than 5 billion miles? Your guess ____ 4.  1.  Actual answer: 2.8 billion miles 15   Hindsight bias   “I knew it all along.”   Miscalibration of confidence   we tend to be overconfident in our judgments 1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.  9.  10.  1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.  9.  10.  Martin Luther King,...
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This note was uploaded on 01/26/2014 for the course PSYCH 228 taught by Professor Broaders during the Winter '11 term at Northwestern.

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