Unformatted text preview: ere not
t hat many old people, younger people
were supporting the pension plan Declines in mortality easy to grasp, but
what causes fertility to decline? Where are human populations growing
fastest? Middle East and Africa • In some cases, government policy (China, India)
• In most cases, voluntary decisions by parents,
– Greater survival of children?
Children too expensive?
Society providing more security in old age?
Worry about overpopulation? • And made possible by
– Availability of contraception/abortion
– Postponement of marriage/family
-Gvmt decides that there is too many people. Put in place social/medical programs
t hat reduce fertility. In most cases where Demog Trans has happened, this does not
h appen. 30 years before, Latin America, China, India would have been in highest category -Blue: Rapid growth - AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST
Yellow: Less than 1% of growth (growing, not quickly) -Old ppl want to have children to take care of them when they're older = population
g oes up
Area = 2011 pop; black dots = 1960 pop; colour =growth rate Area = GDP 2009; black dots =GDP 1980; colour = GDP per capita -Less developed world has the traditional pyramid: predicts future growth -Canada, US, Europe: GIANT consumption , LITTLE growth -More developed countries show rectangles: less growth -Middle East & Africa: LOW consumption, MASSIVE growth
-Majority of consumption is happening in areas of the world where poplns are growing the slowest!
-This is going to set up a fundamental disconnect going foward -> impact for the globe as a whole : it is the
p roduct of CONSUMPTION per PERSON.
-Any efforts to change human contribution to the C cycle (for example): Develop...
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- Winter '14
- Demography, Annotated Lecture S, death rates, Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon