G recidivism eg recovery from psychosis meehl 1954

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Unformatted text preview: cal predictions of various outcomes ◦ E.g. success in training programs ◦ E.g. recidivism ◦ E.g. recovery from psychosis ◦ Meehl (1954) found 16 to 20 studies ◦ "in all but one, predictions made actuarially were either approximately equal or superior to those made by a clinician" (p.119). Advantages of the Clinical Approach Ø Information is needed about domains for which no adequate tests are available Ø Rare, unusual events of a highly individualized nature are to be predicted or judged Ø The clinical judgments involve instances for which no statistical equations have been developed Ø The role of unforeseen circumstances could negate the efficiency of a formula Ø Easy to employ Potential Judgment Errors Ø Reading-in syndrome Ø Information Overload Ø Effects of predictions may prevent outcomes Ø Ignoring base rates Ø Regression to the mean Ø Overconfidence in Judgment Advantages of the Statistical Approach Ø Useful when the outcome to be predicted is objective and specific Ø The outcomes for large, heterogeneous samples are involved, while interest in the individual case is minimal Ø There is reason to be particularly concerned about human judgmental error or bias Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction Is the dichotomy helpful? ◦ ◦ ◦ MMPI claims to utilize a rigorously empirical method to predict criteria which are defined as the clinical judgment of psychiatric personnel. The ultimate objective of MMPI statistical prediction is to duplicate what is fundamentally an irreducibly clinical judgment! Clinicians still need to select what to look at and decide what to do with the results...
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This note was uploaded on 01/31/2014 for the course PSYC 433 taught by Professor Dr.k.dobson during the Winter '13 term at University of Calgary.

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