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Unformatted text preview: Julie is a student at this school. Is she
more likely to have an A or a B average?
more Base Rate
Base Diagnoses: Doctors sometimes
misdiagnose patients because of base
rate bias. Why and when? Conjunction Fallacy
Conjunction Expert opinions on Foreign Policy Soviets invade Poland and US cuts
diplomatic ties in next year: 4%
diplomatic US cuts diplomatic ties in next year: 1% Paying for travel insurance: Die of any cause on vacation Die of terrorist attack while on vacation Availability Bias
Availability Which are most common causes of
death? (US stats, 1990-2000)?
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- Fall '09