Likely julie is a student at this school is she julie

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Unformatted text preview: Julie is a student at this school. Is she Julie more likely to have an A or a B average? more Base Rate Base Diagnoses: Doctors sometimes Diagnoses: misdiagnose patients because of base rate bias. Why and when? Conjunction Fallacy Conjunction Expert opinions on Foreign Policy Soviets invade Poland and US cuts Soviets diplomatic ties in next year: 4% diplomatic US cuts diplomatic ties in next year: 1% Paying for travel insurance: Die of any cause on vacation Die of terrorist attack while on vacation Availability Bias Availability Which are most common causes of Which death? (US stats, 1990-2000)? death? Tobacco Poor diet Physical inactivity Firearms Drugs...
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