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Examples Involving Conditional Probability

Examples Involving Conditional Probability - Examples...

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Examples involving conditional probability Math 30530, Fall 2013 September 5, 2013 Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 1 / 5
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I’m always late to work 60% of days I walk to work. On those days -→ I’m late 80% of the time -→ I’m on time 20% of the time 40% of days I drive to work. On those days -→ I’m late 50% of the time -→ I’m on time 50% of the time Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 2 / 5
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I’m always late to work 60% of days I walk to work. On those days -→ I’m late 80% of the time -→ I’m on time 20% of the time 40% of days I drive to work. On those days -→ I’m late 50% of the time -→ I’m on time 50% of the time Question 1 : What’s the probability that I’m late for work? Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 2 / 5
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I’m always late to work 60% of days I walk to work. On those days -→ I’m late 80% of the time -→ I’m on time 20% of the time 40% of days I drive to work. On those days -→ I’m late 50% of the time -→ I’m on time 50% of the time Question 1 : What’s the probability that I’m late for work? Answer : Pr ( L ) = Pr ( L W ) + Pr ( L D ) = Pr ( W ) Pr ( L | W ) + Pr ( D ) Pr ( L | D ) = ( . 6 )( . 8 ) + ( . 4 )( . 5 ) = . 68 Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 2 / 5
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I’m always late to work 60% of days I walk to work. On those days -→ I’m late 80% of the time -→ I’m on time 20% of the time 40% of days I drive to work. On those days -→ I’m late 50% of the time -→ I’m on time 50% of the time Question 1 : What’s the probability that I’m late for work?
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