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Pr(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 ∩ A5 ) = Pr(A1 ) × Pr(A2 A1 ) ×
Pr(A3 A1 ∩ A2 ) × Pr(A4 A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) ×
Pr(A5 A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 )
13
12
11
10
=
52
51
50
49
13 × 12 × 11 × 10 × 9
=
52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48 Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples 9
48 September 5, 2013 3/5 Am I at the gym?
If I go to the gym today, there’s an 80% chance that I’ll go
tomorrow
If I skip the gym today, there’s a 40% chance that I’ll go tomorrow
I go to the gym today. Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 4/5 Am I at the gym?
If I go to the gym today, there’s an 80% chance that I’ll go
tomorrow
If I skip the gym today, there’s a 40% chance that I’ll go tomorrow
I go to the gym today.
Question: What’s the probability that I go 30 days from now? Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 4/5 Am I at the gym?
If I go to the gym today, there’s an 80% chance that I’ll go
tomorrow
If I skip the gym today, there’s a 40% chance that I’ll go tomorrow
I go to the gym today.
Question: What’s the probability that I go 30 days from now?
Answer: Let Gi = {I go to the gym on day i } (today is day 0) Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 4/5 Am I at the gym?
If I go to the gym today, there’s an 80% chance that I’ll go
tomorrow
If I skip the gym today, there’s a 40% chance that I’ll go tomorrow
I go to the gym today.
Question: What’s the probability that I go 30 days from now?
Answer: Let Gi = {I go to the gym on day i } (today is day 0)
Pr(G0 ) = 1 Math 30530 (Fall 2012) Conditional examples September 5, 2013 4/5 Am I at the gym?
If I go to the gym today, there’s an 80% chance that I’ll go
tomorrow
If I skip the gym today, there’s a 40% ch...
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This note was uploaded on 01/31/2014 for the course MATH 30530 taught by Professor Hind,r during the Fall '08 term at Notre Dame.
 Fall '08
 Hind,R
 Conditional Probability, Probability

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