This is represented by event nodes with two branches

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Unformatted text preview: roceed and what the expected annual profit would be (ignoring the cost of the survey). First we must determine an estimate for the probability that the survey will indicate a positive attitude or negative attitude toward the design. Second, given the survey indicates either a positive or negative attitude, we must determine the posterior probability that sales will be either strong or moderate. Both of these calculations can be performed using the template for posterior probabilities on the CD. These results are shown below. Thus, there is a 50% chance that the survey will indicate a positive attitude and a 50% chance that the survey will indicate a negative attitude toward the new car. Given a positive attitude, the probability of strong sales increases to 84%. Given a negative attitude, the...
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This document was uploaded on 01/31/2014.

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