3 brainstormonthekindsoforganiz

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Unformatted text preview: raf f ic patterns and buying cycles, can witness custo mer reactio ns f irst hand, and o f ten have a degree o f f ield insight no t available to senio r managers at the co mpany’s Minneapo lis headquarters. Harness this co llective input and yo u’ve go t a gro up brain where, as wisdo m o f cro wds pro po nents o f ten put it, “the we is greater than the me.” When Best Buy asked its emplo yees to predict gif t card sales, the “cro wd’s” co llective average answer was 99.5 percent accurate; experts paid to make the predictio n were o f f by 5 percent. Ano ther experiment predicting ho liday sales was o f f by o nly 1/ 10 o f 1 percent. The experts? Of f by 7 percent!P . Dvo rak, “Best Buy Taps ‘P redictio n Market,’” Wall Street Jo urnal, September 16, 2008; and Renée Dye, “The P ro mise o f P redictio n Markets: A Ro undtable,” McKinsey Quarterly (2008): 83–93. In an article in the McKinsey Quarterly, Suro wiecki o utlined several criteria necessary f o r a cro wd...
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