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Unformatted text preview: to be “smart.”R. Dye, “The P ro mise o f P redictio n Markets: A Ro undtable,” McKinsey Quarterly
(2008): 83–93. The cro wd must be div erse, so that participants are bringing dif f erent pieces o f inf o rmatio n to the table, be decentralized, so that no o ne at the to p is dictating the cro wd’s answer,
o f f er a co llectiv e v erdict that summarizes participant o pinio ns,
be independent, so that each f o cuses o n inf o rmatio n rather than the o pinio ns o f o thers. Go o gle, which runs several predictive markets, undersco red these principles when it f o und that
predictio ns were less accurate when users were geo graphically pro ximate, meaning f o lks in the
same wo rk gro up who sat near o ne ano ther typically tho ught to o much alike.B. Co wgill, J. Wo lf ers,
and E. Zitzewitz, “Using P redictio n Markets to Track Inf o rmatio n Flo ws: Evidence f ro m Go o gle,”
wo rking paper accessed No vember 30, 2009, via
http:/ / bo co wgill.co m/ Go o gleP redictio nMarketP aper.pdf . P o o rer predictive o utco mes likely
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This document was uploaded on 01/31/2014.
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