Unformatted text preview: y accessible predictio n markets are diverse in their f o cus. The Io wa Electro nic Market
attempts to guess the o utco me o f po litical campaigns, with mixed results. Farecast (no w part o f
Micro so f t’s Bing kno wledge engine) claims a 75 percent accuracy rate f o r f o recasting the f uture
price o f airline tickets.“Audit Reveals Farecast P redictive Accuracy at 74.5 percent,”
farecast.liv e.co m, May 18, 2007, http:/ / www.prnewswire.co m/ news-releases/ f arecast-launchesnew-to o ls-to -help-savvy-travelers-catch-elusive-airf are-price-dro ps-this-summer-58165652.html.
The Ho llywo o d Sto ck Exchange allo ws participants to buy and sell predictio n shares o f mo vies,
acto rs, directo rs, and f ilm-related o ptio ns. The exchange, no w o wned by investment f irm Canto r
Fitzgerald, has picked Oscar winners with 90 percent accuracy.J. Suro wiecki, “Cro wdso urcing the
Crystal Ball,” Fo rbes, Octo ber 15, 2007. And at HedgeStreet.co m, participants can make micro bets,
wagering as little as ten do llars o n the o utco me o f eco n...
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This document was uploaded on 01/31/2014.
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