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Unformatted text preview: o mic events, including predictio ns o n the
prices o f ho mes, go ld, f o reign currencies, o il, and even the eco no mic impact o f hurricanes and tro pical sto rms. HedgeStreet is co nsidered a market and is subject to o versight by the Co mmo dity
Futures Trading Co mmissio n.E. Lambert, “Hedging f o r Dummies,” Fo rbes, March 13, 2006, 70–
72. K E Y TAK E AWAYS
Many Web 2. 0 efforts allow firms to tap the wisdom of crowds, identifying collective
Prediction markets tap crowd opinion with results that are often more accurate than the most
accurate expert forecasts and estimates.
Prediction markets are most accurate when tapping the wisdom of a diverse and variously skilled
and experienced group, and are least accurate when participants are highly similar. QU E S TI ONS AND E XE RC I S E S
1. What makes for a “wise” crowd? When might a crowd not be so wise?
2. Find a prediction market online and participate in the effort. Be prepared to share your
experience with your class, including any statistics of predictive accuracy,...
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This document was uploaded on 01/31/2014.
- Winter '14
- The American, Trigraph, cial media, mo st, blo gs, mo st po