But o ther co mputing co mpo nents are also seeing

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Unformatted text preview: iness.Semico nducto r materials, like the silico n dio xide used inside mo st co mputer chips, are capable o f enabling as well as inhibiting the f lo w o f electricity. These pro perties enable chips to perf o rm math o r sto re data. Strictly speaking, Mo o re’s Law do es no t apply to o ther techno lo gy co mpo nents. But o ther co mputing co mpo nents are also seeing their price versus perf o rmance curves skyro cket expo nentially. Data sto rage do ubles every twelve mo nths. Netwo rking speed is o n a tear, to o . With an equipment change at the ends o f the cables, the amo unt o f data that can be squirted o ver an opt ical f iber line can do uble every nine mo nths.Fiber-o ptic lines are glass o r plastic data transmissio n cables that carry light. These cables o f f er higher transmissio n speeds o ver lo nger distances than co pper cables that transmit electricity. These numbers sho uld be taken as ro ugh appro ximatio ns and sho uldn’t be expected to be strictly precise o ver time. Ho wever, they are usef ul as ro ugh guides regarding f uture co mputing price/ perf o rmance trends. Despite any f luctuatio n, it’s clear that the price/ perf o rmance curve f o r many techno lo gies is expo nential, o f f ering asto nishing impro vement o ver time. Figure 5. 1 Advancing Rat es of Technology (Silicon, St orage, Telecom) Source: Adop t ed from Shareholder Pres ent at ion by Jeff Bezos , Amazon. com, 2006. Get Out Your Crystal Ball Faster and cheaper makes po ssible the o nce impo ssible. As a manager, yo ur jo b will be abo ut predicting the f uture. First, co nsider ho w the eco no mics o f Mo o re’s Law o pens new markets. When techno lo gy gets cheap, price elast icit y kicks in. Tech pro ducts are highly price elastic, meaning co nsumers buy mo re pro ducts as they beco me cheaper.As o ppo sed to go o ds and services that are price inelastic (like health care and ho using), which co nsumers will try their best to buy even if prices go up. And it’s no t just that existing custo mers lo ad up o n mo re tech; entire new markets o pen up as f irms f ind new uses f o r these new chips. Just lo o k at the fiv e w av es o f co mputing we’ve seen o ver the previo us f ive decades.M. Co peland, “Ho w to Ride the Fif th Wave,” Business 2.0, July 1, 2005. In the first w av e in the 1960s, co mputing was limited to large, ro o m-sized mainf rame co mputers that o nly go vernments and big co rpo ratio ns co uld af f o rd. Mo o re’s Law kicked in during the 1970s f o r the seco nd w av e, and minico mputers were a hit. These were ref rigerato r-sized co mputers that were as speedy as o r speedier than the prio r generatio n o f mainf rames, yet were af f o rdable by wo rk gro ups, f acto ries, and smaller o rganizatio ns. The 1980s bro ught w av e three in the f o rm o f P Cs, and by the end o f the decade nearly every white-co llar wo rker in America had a f ast and cheap co mputer o n their desk. In the 1990s w av e fo ur came in the f o rm o f Internet co mputing—cheap servers and netwo rks made it...
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This document was uploaded on 01/31/2014.

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