2012 the als predic on prize als predic on prize setup

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Unformatted text preview: d to observe drug effect Predic-on Progression: How? The PRO ­ACT Database   Pooled Resource Open ­Access ALS Clinical Trials   8500 de ­iden-fied pa-ent records from completed clinical trials   Largest ALS pa-ent data set ever assembled   Demographics, Medical and family history data   Func-onal measures (ALSFRS, lung capacity)   Vital signs (weight, height, respiratory rate)   Lab data (blood chemistry, hematology, and urinalysis)   Released to the public in Dec. 2012 The ALS Predic-on Prize ALS Predic-on Prize: Setup   The Contest Data •  918 training pa-ents   12 months of data (demographic, ALSFRS, vital sta-s-cs, lab tests)   Time series: roughly monthly measurements, unequally spaced •  279 test pa-ents   First 3 months of data available at test ;me   Challenge: Given first 3 months of pa-ent data, predict progression of ALS over subsequent 9 months   Measure: ALS Func-onal Ra-ng Scale (ALSFRS) score •  Rate of progression = slope of ALSFRS score ALSFRS score Target for Predic-on Months Target for Predic-on   Issues: Timing of future visits unknown; Slope unstable   Open Ques;on: Be^er targets for predic;on? •  Es-mate ALSFRS score as a func-on of -me? •  Classify pa-ent as slow or fast progressor? ALSFRS score ALSFRS (m2) − ALSFRS (m1) slope = m2 − m1 m1 First visit a_er 3 months m2 First visit a_er 12 months Months ALS Progression Types fast non ­linear slow The Difficulty of Predic-on ALS Predic-on Prize: Evalua-on   Contest run on Innocen;ve prize plaporm •  Hosts science compe--ons •  See also Kaggle, Challenge.gov   Contestants uploaded code to Innocen-ve server •  Code had to be wriqen in R! •  Max running -me: 6 hours   Leaderboard displayed error on test set •  Max # submissions: 100   Er...
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