Sixty employees missed a day of work during the past

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Unformatted text preview: learn this material? Why is this material a required course? The answers to these questions come in the form of two assertions: (1) most if not all interesting problems in economics and other social sciences involve some degree of uncertainty; and (2) most people, including those with Ph.D.’s in economics and statistics, are poor intuitive processors of uncertain phenomena. The first assertion is relatively uncontroversial; it is hard to think of an interesting managerial/financial/economic/political problem where the outcomes are known with certainty. As for the second, consider the following three questions: (1) Coincidental Absenteeism. Sixty employees missed a day of work during the past year due to problems arranging off–site childcare. What is the chance that at least...
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