3 based on the results obtained defend your model

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Unformatted text preview: 3) Based on the results obtained, defend your model validity. Table 2 is the summery of number of abnormal events occurred during past ten months. Month N C1 Safe NC2 Near miss 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 9 14 32 37 40 44 48 51 53 4 10 17 61 79 88 94 101 111 114 NC3 NC5 NC4 Mishap Incident Accident 2 4 6 18 23 24 24 27 30 32 1 1 2 10 12 13 14 15 16 18 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4) Estimate the predictive probability of number of abnormal events in the next time interval (eleventh month) using predictive model and Table 2. 5) Suggest and discuss a method to reduce the uncertainty available in quantification, [Failure probabilities of release prevention, dispersion prevention, ignition prevention and escalation prevention are given as 0.0527, 0.0616, 0.106 and 0.0271, respectively] Table 1: Incident scenario analysis and severity level of consequences No. Date Scenarios Severity Level 1 04.Jan 09 Near miss 2 12.Jan 09 3 13.Jan 09 4 14.Jan 09 5 15.Jan 09 6 17.Jan 09 7 20.Jan 09 8 19.Jan 09 9 20.Jan...
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