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Unformatted text preview: or the global oil and
gas indus try. The gradual eas ing of tens ions between US and Iran
m ay lead to norm alis ation of flow of c rude oil from the wes t As ian
businesstoday.intoday.in/stor ypr int/201839 6/18 1/2/14 M ar ket exper ts on what to expect fr om var ious sector s in 2014 : Business Today c ountry. Im provem ent in s upplies from Lybia and Iraq m ay als o eas e pres s ure on global oil
pric es .
However, pic k-up in growth in US, Europe and China m ay lead to inc reas e in dem and. Thus ,
c rude oil pric es are expec ted to hover between $95 and $112 in 2014.
There has been a s ea c hange in the global natural gas bus ines s over the las t c ouple of
years . This trend is expec ted to c ontinue in 2014.
W ith dis c overy of new s hale gas res erves and s tabilis ation of s hale gas produc tion in the
older bloc ks , the US is now m eeting a large part of its energy requirem ent through loc al
produc tion. This has depres s ed natural gas pric es .
However, s inc e logis tic s of natural gas trans portation ac ros s c ontinents c ontinues to rem ain
a c hallenge, pric es differ s ignific antly in various parts of the globe. In the long run, it is expec ted that fres h dis c overies ac ros s the world will bring down pric es .
However, globally, we expec t pric es to rem ain firm during the firs t four m onths of 2014 due to
high dem and during the winter s eas on.
From the Indian c apital m arket pers pec tive, we like Cairn India, BPCL and HPCL. W e believe
that thes e c om panies are very s trong and have the potential to provide hands om e returns to
inves tors over the next c ouple of years .
In c as e of BPCL and HPCL, the s truc tural problem c reated due to the s ubs idy burden is
expec ted to eas e over the next 6-12 m onths . CONSUM ER DURABLES
businesstoday.intoday.in/stor ypr int/201839 7/18 1/2/14 M ar ket exper ts on what to expect fr om var ious sector s in 2014 : Business Today "Fridge, was hing m ac hine, m ic rowav e ov en firm s offer inv es tm ent
VK Vijay ak um ar, Inv es tm ent Strategis t, Geojit BNP Paribas
The c ons um er durables indus try does well when the ec onom y
grows . This is m ore s o in an em erging c ountry s uc h as India where
ac c es s to c ons um er durables is s till very lim ited. During the boom
years from 2004 to 2011, fas t ec onom ic growth, whic h led to a s pike in dis c retionary inc om e,
ens ured that the indus try did s pec tac ularly well. But s inc e 2011, with growth s lowing and
high inflation eating into hous ehold s avings , the indus try has been fac ing rough weather.
Ris ing interes t rates and im port c os ts due to rupee deprec iation have added to the indus try's
Segm ents like s m art phones and tablets are growing at a fas t pac e, but do not offer any
inves tm ent opportunity, as thes e are dom inated by unlis ted MNCs . In the LED TV s egm ent,
c heap im ports are pos ing a problem . However, refrigerator, was hing m ac hine and
m ic rowave oven c om panies off...
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This document was uploaded on 02/06/2014.
- Spring '14