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Unformatted text preview: ow the poverty line has been cut in half. 15 | P a g e Russian Oil DA Affirmative BDL No Impact – Russian Economic Decline Won’t Cause War
[____] [____] Empirically, Russian economic decline does not cause chaos and war
New York Times, 2012
(June 4, http://latitude.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/04/while-the-ruble-slumps/)
I remember well the Russian financial crisis of 1998, when the country defaulted on its debt
obligations and the ruble collapsed. It was a textbook crisis: there was panic, there were bank
runs, and the economy was the only thing people discussed for months; I recall a party at which art
critics could not stop talking about exchange rates. But ten years later, in the fall of 2008, when the
worldwide economic crisis began affecting Russia, there was an eerie calm, as though the
state of the national currency were an abstraction. Like today.
[____] No impact to Russian economy and its resilient
Robert Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant
to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning, 2009
(RAND. “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession —A Caution”.
Now on to Russia. Again, five years from today. Did the global recession and Russia’s present
serious economic problems substantially modify Russian foreign policy? No. (President
Obama is beginning his early July visit to Moscow as this paper goes to press; nothing
fundamental will result from that visit). Did it produce a serious weakening of Vladimir Putin’s
power and authority in Russia? No, as recent polls in Russia make clear. Did it reduce Russian
worries and capacities to oppose NATO enlargement and defense measures eastward? No. Did it
affect Russia’s willingness to accept much tougher sanctions against Iran? No. Russian Foreign
Minister Lavrov has said there is no evidence that Iran intends to make a nuclear weapon.25 In
sum, Russian foreign policy is today on a steady, consistent path that can be characterized as
follows: to resurrect Russia’s standing as a great power; to reestablish Russian primary influence
over the space of the former Soviet Union; to resist Western eff orts to encroach on the space of
the former Soviet Union; to revive Russia’s military might and power projection; to extend the reach
of Russian diplomacy in Europe, Asia, and beyond; and to oppose American global primacy. For
Moscow, these foreign policy first principles are here to stay, as they have existed in Russia
for centuries. 26 None of these enduring objectives of Russian foreign policy are likely to be
changed in any serious way by the economic crisis.
16 | P a g e Russian Oil DA Affirmative BDL No Impact – Russian Economic Decline Won’t Cause War
[____] Impact empirically denied. Russia’s economy is constantly weak
George Friedman, Founder of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, 2009
(The Russian Economy and...
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