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His last highly popular 8 year term as russian

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Unformatted text preview: last thing Moscow needs is heightened market volatility. The priority should be to stabilize the market, attract consistent upstream investment and arrest depletion to keep production above 10 million bpd. Russia should take note: Take the politics out of oil, or it will surely take its vengeance out on you. 11 | P a g e Russian Oil DA Affirmative BDL Internal Link Turn – High Oil Prices Discourage Russian Economic Reform [____] [____] High prices kill reforms Anne Applebaum, Director of Political Studies at the Legatum Institute, 2011 (Washington Post, ¼, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/03/AR2011010304070.html) Why the change of tone? Why now? Many complex theories have been hatched to explain it. This being Russia, none can be proved. But perhaps the explanation is very simple: Oil is once again above $90 a barrel - and the price is rising. And if that's the reason, it's nothing new. In fact, if one were to plot the rise and fall of Soviet and Russian foreign and domestic reforms over the past 40 years on a graph, it would match the fall and rise of the international oil price (for which domestic crude oil prices are a reasonable proxy) with astonishing precision. To see what I mean, begin at the beginning: In the 1970s, oil prices began to rise significantly , along with the then-Soviet Union's resistance to change. The previous decade (with oil prices at $2 or $3 a barrel, not adjusted for inflation) had been one of flux and experimentation. But after OPEC pushed prices up in the 1970s, oil revenue poured in - and the Soviet Union entered a period of internal "stagnation" and external aggression. Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev invested heavily in the military, halted internal reforms and in 1979 (when oil was at $25 a barrel) invaded Afghanistan. Brezhnev was eventually followed by Yuri Andropov, who had the good fortune to run the Soviet Union when oil prices were still high (at his death, in 1984, they averaged $28 a barrel). Andropov could thus afford both an internal crackdown on dissidents and a continued tense relationship with the West. But Andropov was followed by Mikhail Gorbachev, who took over just as prices plunged. In 1986 (with oil down to $14 a barrel), he launched his reform programs, perestroika and glasnost. By 1989 (when oil was still only a t $18) he allowed the Berlin Wall to fall, freed Central Europe and ended the Cold War. Prices fluctuated, but they did not really rise again in the 1990s (plunging as low as $11 in 1998), the years when Boris Yeltsin was still trying to be best friends with Bill Clinton, the Russian media were relatively free and there was still talk, at least, of major economic reforms. But in 1999 (when oil prices rose to $16 a barrel), Yeltsin's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, launched the second Chechen war, the West bombed Belgrade, and the mood in Russia turned distinctly anti-Western once again. 12 | P a g e Russian Oil DA Affirmative BDL Internal Link Turn – High Oil Prices Facilitate Russian Militarism [____] [____] A drop in oil prices would force Russia to cut it’s aggressive military moderniz ation plans John T. Bennet, f...
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This document was uploaded on 02/06/2014.

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