S forces were integral to ending moammar qaddafis

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Unformatted text preview: ithout such grievances, this global narrative would have very little resonance on a local level. One should not assume that all future conflict and social unrest will automatically lead to AQAM infiltration. Muslim insurgents in the ethnically Malay provinces of south Thailand, for example, have rejected offers of assistance from foreign militants. That said, as long as conflicts like the one in southern Thailand persist, the potential exists for AQAM infiltration. 19 | P a g e Port Security Affirmative BDL Answers to: Arab Spring Solves Terrorism [___] [___] Terrorists being released from jails, anti-US sentiment still strong, radicalization due to moderates selling out Daniel L. Byman, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 2011 (September 1, Al Qaeda’s Future: How Likely is Another Attack?) Fortunately for Zawahiri, the operating environment in much of the Arab world is freer than it has been in decades. The Libyan uprising and Egyptian revolution resulted in the opening of jails, releasing many jihadists. Some have laid down arms, but others may rejoin the struggle. In Yemen, the collapse of the Saleh regime has increased AQAP's freedom of action, enabling it to expand operations in many parts of the country. Even in countries where the regimes remain intact, their security services will now focus on student demonstrators and intellectuals, not jihadists—because democratic activists, not terrorists, are the biggest threat to their hold on power. Fortunately for Zawahiri, it will be easy to keep lambasting the United States. Although the Obama administration played an important role in helping ease out Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and U.S. forces were integral to ending Moammar Qaddafi's rule in Libya, the United States remains deeply unpopular in the Arab world. Even though U.S. forces are officially supposed to end their presence in Iraq at the end of the year, significant numbers are likely to remain in Iraq in some capacity. Although these forces will play a lesser role in safeguarding the country, and U.S. officials hope they will stay off the front pages, their presence still angers many in the region. And of course the United States will stay in Afghanistan for years to come. Nor will the United States end its cozy relationship with the region's dictators anytime soon. Already, the United States has turned a blind eye as Saudi Arabia has tried to stop demonstrators from toppling Bahrain's al-Khalifa family. In addition, Washington will be caught between its desire to maintain good relationships with other friendly dictators like Jordan's King Abdullah and its need to work with new democrats. This balancing act will leave everyone dissatisfied and give al Qaeda fodder for a public relations offensive. And of course the United States and Israel will remain close friends. The inevitable disappointments of Arab-world Islamists will also provide al Qaeda with a fertile atmosphere for re...
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This document was uploaded on 02/06/2014.

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