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Americanprogressorgissues201103pdfoilsavingsagendapdf

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Unformatted text preview: s. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? 7|Page Russian Oil DA BDL Uniqueness – Russian Economy High [____] [____] Russian economy good now – funding from oil sector key to maintain growth Antonia Oprita, a Deputy News Editor for CNBC.com, 2012 (6/21/12. http://www.cnbc.com/id/47870418) As participants gather in the Russian city of St. Petersburg for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, their debates will focus on minimizing the effects of the debt crisis that is still raging through the euro zone. However, Russia itself is more sheltered from the crisis this time than it was during the global downturn in 2008 and 2009. Its prospects are brighter than those of many other economies, despite fears that the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency will slow the pace of structural reforms and falling oil prices could hurt the country's budget. “I think currently Russia is in a very good situation," Anton Struchenevsky, senior economist at Troika Dialog in Moscow, told CNBC.com. "The exchange rate policy is more flexible than in 2008/2009, and it helps Russia to absorb external shocks." The ruble fell 12 percent against the dollar in May, the biggest drop since January 2009, but in June it recouped most of the losses and is nearly flat year-to-date. "Having lurched given the crisis in the euro zone, [the ruble] has pretty much recovered all its losses," Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital RF in Moscow, told CNBC.com. "The Russian state has a very strong balance sheet," Halligan added, pointing out that Russia "hasn't printed any money." Half of the revenues to Russia's budget come from the oil and gas sector, and taxation in that area depends heavily on the oil price on international markets. When prices decline, the Russian budget gets less revenue in dollar terms. 8|Page Russian Oil DA BDL Uniqueness – Russian Economy High [____] [____] Russian economy good enough to avoid meltdown now Mark Admonis, MA from Oxford, 2012 (5/25, http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/05/24/russias-economy-is-still-growing-andwhy-this-matters/) I agree that there are serious and growing tensions between Putin’s electoral base (“real Russians” if we apply the hackneyed formulation so often used in American politics) and the oligarchs who dominate the highest levels of the “vertical of power.” I even agree with the article’s contention that these tensions are, at a basic level, irreconcilable: the sorts of policies that boost the oligarchs harm the working class and the sorts of politics which benefit the working class harm the oligarchs. But is the economic pie actually shrinking? No, it’s clearly not shrinking. Indeed it’s not only growing, it’s growing more quickly than in most of Russia’s neighbors. This all might seem like a minor technicality or an unduly legalistic reading of a simple blog post, but as I’ve tried to explain above it’s actually of the utmost importance. Russia’s political st...
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