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Orgpublicationconfronting uncertain threat p x al

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Unformatted text preview: er CIA Director George Tenet's assessment, "the main threat is the nuclear one. I am convinced that this is where [Osama bin Laden] and his operatives desperately want to go." When asked recently what keeps him awake at night, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates answered: "It's the thought of a terrorist ending up with a weapon of mass destruction, especially nuclear." Leaders who have reached this conclusion about the genuine urgency of the nuclear terrorist threat are not unaware of their skeptics' presumptions. Rather, they have examined the evidence, much of which has been painstakingly compiled here by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, former head of the CIA's terrorism and weapons-of-mass-destruction efforts, and much of which remains classified. Specifically, who is seriously motivated to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans? Osama bin Laden, who has declared his intention to kill "4 million Americans -- including 2 million children." The deeply held belief that even if they wanted to, "men in caves can't do this" was then Pakistani Pr esident Pervez Musharraf's view when Tenet flew to Islamabad to see him after 9/11. As Tenet (assisted by Mowatt Larssen) took him step by step through the evidence, he discovered that indeed they could. Terrorists' opportunities to bring a bomb into the United States follow the same trails along which 275 tons of drugs and 3 million people crossed U.S. borders illegally last year 18 | P a g e Port Security Affirmative BDL Answers to: Terrorist Threat Decreasing [___] [___] Regional Al Qaeda affiliates are growing Rick Nelson, CSIS, 2011 (Confronting and Uncertain Threat: The Future of Al Qaeda and its Associated Movements, September 7, http://csis.org/publication/confronting-uncertain-threat, p. X) Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) has become an increasingly diffuse security threat. Although the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands may have represented the epicenter of global terrorism in the past decade, al Qaeda’s various regional affiliates are growing in prominence. The past several years also have seen a rise in al Qaeda–inspired plots by small cells or unaffiliated individuals based in the West. [___] Demographic trends indicate the terror threat will grow Rick Nelson, CSIS, 2011 (Confronting and Uncertain Threat: The Future of Al Qaeda and its Associated Movements, September 7, http://csis.org/publication/confronting-uncertain-threat, p. X) According to a CSIS study on demographics, there is a strong linkage between “youth and poverty on the one hand and chronic violence, social instability, and recurring civil war on the other.” Many al Qaeda–affiliated groups have emerged from the type of stratified, chaotic, and conflict- ridden environments often catalyzed by demographic shifts. Violence and instability are also important for AQAM on the ideological level. Bin Laden and other AQAM figures have seized on disparate local tensions and conflicts in an attempt to weave a single global narrative. W...
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