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Unformatted text preview: mand forecasts:
• What people have done
– extrapolation (time series analysis)
– statistical demand analysis • What people say they will do
– surveys • What people actually do
– laboratory markets
– test markets Trend Analysis sales sales time t* time t* Statistical Demand Analysis # cans of soda = -140 + 6X – .002Y What people say they will do
____ I definitely would not buy
____ I might buy
____ I definitely would buy
100 actual %
purchasing 0 definitely not might definitely
will Simulated markets
• respondents given $20
• complete initial survey (perceptions & preference)
• shown advertising for competing brands & new brand
• enter simulated retail store with, say, deodorants
• spend any amount of money from $0 to $20
• samples given to those who do not buy new product
• "purchasers" vs. "free samples" recorded
• follow-up telephone interview Test markets Actual test market:
• Product is actually "launched" in a limited way
• What types of cities are chosen?
• What is the benefit of a test market?
• For what types of goods are test markets not feasible?
• What are drawbacks to test marketing? Key Points or "Take Aways"
• Company can grow by expanding market size or
stealing market share
• Size of the potential market depends on how broa...
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- Fall '12