05-02 Lecture Slides (Final)

# N mean 102842 n median 1350 version b 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1

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Unformatted text preview: is more likely to occur soon, even when the process generating the events is random ¨༊  Which of the following two coin toss outcomes would be more likely? ¨༊  ¨༊  Suppose an unbiased coin is flipped three times, and each time the coin lands on Heads. If you had to bet \$100 on the next toss, what side would you choose? A. Heads 17% B. Tails 47% C. No preference 36% 1) HHHHTTTT They are 2) HTHHTHTT equally likely 3 5/1/13 (3) Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic n༆  A strategy in which: ¨༊  one begins with a ﬁrst approximation (= anchoring) ¨༊  and then makes adjustments on the basis of additional information (= adjustment) ¨༊  Example: Deciding how many kegs of beer you buy for your end of...
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