That way they cancel out that phpsvcr vfavh

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Unformatted text preview: ” “Sick” State of the World Healthy 2 ­1 Sick ­1 2 In this case, the value of the two correct decisions must be the same, and the value of the two must incorrect decisions must be the same. (That way they cancel out.) (That β = p(H)/p(S)*[v(CR) + v(FA)]/[v(H) + v(M)] = .8/.2*(2 + -1)/(2 + -1) = .8/.2 =4 0.45 “Healthy” 0.4 “Sick” 0.3 0.25 Sick Healthy 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 # Goodies in the Blood 14 5 13 0 12 5 12 0 11 5 10 0 85 70 0 55 Probability of Disease 0.35 The optimal location for the response threshold depends on the objective of the decision maker. What goal does he or she want to accomplish (maximize expected value of the decision, maximize the number of correct decisions, etc.)? decisions, SDT has widespread applications: SDT deciding who would default on a loan deciding whether to hire a worker determining whether someone is lying determining or not or and any other decision that is made and repeatedly based on ambiguous evidence evidence Another Example: Jury Decision Making Probability “Acquit” “Convict” Guilty Innocent P erceived Culpability What are acceptable levels of errors? What Convicting the innocent - False Alarms Acquitting the guilty - Misses Within this framework, how good must Within jurors be to achieve reasonable rates of error ? error Assuming normal dis...
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This document was uploaded on 02/15/2014 for the course PSYCH 002 at Community College of Philadelphia.

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