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solution to assignment 2

# solution to assignment 2 - Solution to Assignment 2 1(a...

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Solution to Assignment 2 1. (a) Period Day Series Trend Forecast No. of new subscribers 0 Feb/15 197 10 207 221 1 Feb/16 213 11 224 209 2 Feb/17 218 10 228 250 3 Feb/18 237 12 249 265 4 Feb/19 255 13 268 301 5 Feb/20 281 16 297 289 6 Feb/21 323 7 Feb/22 We are currently at the end of Feb 21 (period 6) and Feb 25 is 4 days ahead. Set . (b) The promotion will end on Feb 28, after which the demand will be assumed to be stationary. Hence, the forecast for Feb 28 (7 days ahead, ) will be the same as the forecast for Mar 7. (c) The forecasted demand for Feb 28 (and all of Mar) is only 427 (from b), which is far away from the demand of 500. So we need to extend the promotion. Using the same data as in (a) and (b), we want to see how many days, , we would want the promotion to continue on after Feb 21 so that the forecasted demand is 500: So we need 12 days after Feb 21 in order to reach the demand of 500. Therefore, 12 days after Feb 21, Mar 5 should be the last day of promos according to the forecast. 2. (a) First compute centered MA, and then get B/C ratio:

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