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Regression_Sp08_Extras_BB

Regression_Sp08_Extras_BB - Linear Regression"I always...

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Linear Linear Regression Regression “I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is a much better policy to prophesy after the event has already taken place.” Winston Churchill Prediction • If you want to predict a person’s score on a given measurement, what is your best estimate of what that score will be? – The mean • What is your best estimate of variability (accuracy) of this prediction? – The standard deviation • Knowing about the relationship between two variables allows us to “better” our prediction. – IF there is a relationship… Prediction • Regression is about improving our prediction of scores • Regression uses scores on a measure that is correlated with your variable of interest to improve your prediction Prediction Variables Var predicted Var predicted from to Name Predictor variable Criterion variable Symbol X Y Example SAT scores College grades
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Humor Example: Last Class Participants viewed a video of a comedian telling a joke. They were told that the researchers were selecting jokes for future research. In actuality, the subjects were being videotaped and their facial expressions were being recorded. Independent raters blind to the joke coded the length of time in minutes elements of a humorous facial expression were maintained. Regression Example • X = rating of how humorous the joke was on a scale of 1 to 7 • Y = length of time (in minutes) the individual maintained elements of an amused facial expression First step…figuring out the descriptive statistics 7 5 M y = 6.0 M x =5.0
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