Experiments and Natural Experiments

This is confirmedby the analysisin tableiii of labor

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Unformatted text preview: one of the two provinces(BritishColumbia),we present data for the overall sample and separatelyby province.23 month 52 there is no significantgap By Source: Card and Hyslop (2005) TABLEIII SUMMARY LABORMARKETOUTCOMES MONTHSAFTERRANDOMASSIGNMENTa OF 52 Both Provinces Controlgroup outcomes in month 52 Percentemployed Percentwith reportedwage Mean log hourlywage Cumulativeemploymentsince randomassignment(in years) Programgroup outcomes in month 52 Percentemployed Percentwith reportedwage Mean log hourlywage Cumulativeemploymentsince randomassignment(in years) Difference: Programgroup - Controlgroup Percentemployed Percentwith reportedwage Mean log hourlywage Cumulativeemploymentsince randomassignment(in years) British Columbia New Brunswick 41.56 (1.02) 38.26 (1.01) 2.17 (0.01) 1.41 (0.03) 39.19 (1.41) 35.63 (1.38) 2.36 (0.02) 1.33 (0.04) 44.08 (1.48) 41.08 (1.46) 1.99 (0.02) 1.49 (0.05) 41.69 (1.00) 39.45 (0.99) 2.15 (0.01) 1.68 (0.03) 37.73 (1.36) 35.04 (1.34) 2.34 (0.02) 1.55 (0.04) 46.05 (1.47) 44.31 (1.47) 1.99 (0.02) 1.82 (0.05) 0.13 (1.43) 1.19 (1.41) -0.02 (0.02) 0.28 (0.04) -1.46 (1.96) -0.58 (1.92) -0.02 (0.03) 0.22 (0.06) 1.97 (2.08) 3.23 (2.07) -0.01 (0.02) 0.33 (0.07) Continues the estimated marginalwage is roughlyconstant over the entire 52-month period suggests that any impacton wages of those who would have workedregardlessof SSP is small. for 23Wages the labor market as a whole are 20-30% higher in Vancouverthan in the areas included in the New Brunswicksample. The minimumwage varies by province and is typically 25% higher in British Columbia than New Brunswick;e.g., $5.00 per hour in New Brunswick in 1993versus$6.00 per hour in BritishColumbia. Source: Card and Hyslop (2005) EFFECTS OF A SUBSIDY FOR WELFARE-LEAVERS 1739 TABLEIII-Continued Both Provinces Regressionmodels for outcomes in month 52 Reduced form equations (a) Programgroup effect in model for log wage (b) Programgroup effect in model for cumulativework (fitted to subsamplewith reportedwage) Effect of cumulativework on wage in month 52 (c) Estimatedby OLS (d) Estimatedby IV,using programgroup status as instrument British Columbia -0.01 (0.02) 0.37 (0.05) -0.02 (0.03) 0.28 (0.08) -0.002 (0.02) 0.46 (0.07) 0.049 (0.007) -0.032 (0.045) 0.046 (0.012) -0.088 (0.099) 0.051 (0.009) -0.004 (0.046) New Brunswick aStandard errors in parentheses. The sample includes 2,339 in the control group and 2,418 in the program group with complete employment data for 52 months after random assignment. Regression models in the bottom panel are fitted to subgroups of 895 control group members and 954 program group members with reported wage in month 52. Other covariates in regression models include year dummies, education, experience, high school completion dummy, immigrant status, age, indicators for working or looking for work at random assignment, and indicators for physical or emotional problems that limit work (measured at random assignment). See text. between the programand control groups in the fraction of people workingor reporting a wage. Indeed, in one province the program group has a slightly lower employment rate th...
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